Semiconductor Industry Insights, Dew Drops, Ravichander Rao
Amid the industry downturn, economic recession and job losses, like everyone else I am also asking what is next? Is this the worst yet or there is more to come? This crisis seems like a long dark tunnel with no end to it. But history has shown that every crisis has been overcome no matter how big the crisis was. If so is the case, can one predict what will the next boom be?
From a cursory look, it is easy to say - one technology lead to the other. Integrated circuits brought PC, PC brought Windows, Windows brought Internet, Internet brought Broadband...As it happens with any new technology, each of these technologies would have had been received with skepticism before they were adopted and became successful. No one would have accepted when the PC and Windows were released that they would be a common household thing in the future. No one would have agreed that a common man wants broadband speed or later wireless connection. But that is how the progression works. The other observation is, while the technology innovation is additive, the semiconductor is shrinking (or subtractive) the design rule.
Now the big question is, how did these innovations become big enough to become a boom? The answer lies in how these got adopted. Windows, Internet and Broadband have a common pattern. They emerged because there was a need at first in the big companies, then its development lead to its adoption in the universities, where it developed even further, then it got adopted by small companies and eventually they achieved boom when the common man adopted the technology. However, the LCD, Netbooks and Smart Phones, they haven't reached the potential yet. They also skipped some of the adoption steps that the other three technologies followed. Perhaps these steps are essential part of the process so that product gets refined before it gets adopted by the next market. Besides, I wonder if there is a real need or application for LCD, Netbooks or the Smart Phones at the university or small companies? If they do not find applications in these two places, why would there be a need for these in the household? Probably this is one of the reasons why there is no boom in the 2000s after the broadband boom. In my opinion, LCD and netbooks have already reached their maturity in terms the number of applications where they are useful. So the only hope now lies on the Smart Phones.
If Smart Phones are to become the next boom, how is that going to be possible? First thing is that it should find applications for the common man. This in effect will give him reasons to buy. Unless the common man buys the Smart Phone it won't be boom but a fizz. Some ways to make a Smart Phone work for a common man is to build in more intelligence into it, such that it identifies a person by feel of touch, softness of grip, fingerprints, etc. The intelligence gives confidence to end user that even it is lost, it cannot be misused. Once this has been achieved, it could be used as a single solution for many operations such as - a key for opening the garage door, car door or office door, as an ID for managing bank accounts, and for all other facilities that a Smart Phone offers today. This is boom could provide some impetus to the economy and will sow the seeds for the next boom.
What could be the innovation beyond Smart Phone? There is a limitation to additive and subtractive innovations. Beyond a point they hit a wall, and cost of innovation become no longer sustainable. Addition of more feature to Smart Phone would make it highly complex. Additionally, the semiconductor manufacturers are finding technology barriers with the subtractive innovation. So definitely the next boom will not be along lines of Windows or Broadband innovation. There will be a focus shift, and perhaps it could be reversing the innovation approaches - substantive innovation for the technology to make the products simpler yet more powerful and additive innovation for the semiconductor manufacturing so that gate size reduction no longer holds the key to the processor performance.
Amid the industry downturn, economic recession and job losses, like everyone else I am also asking what is next? Is this the worst yet or there is more to come? This crisis seems like a long dark tunnel with no end to it. But history has shown that every crisis has been overcome no matter how big the crisis was. If so is the case, can one predict what will the next boom be?
On Friday I was reading an article related to my industry, where I found the chart shown below. It shows which technology was released (or was at its peak?) during which year and where was the semiconductor technology at that point of time.
From a cursory look, it is easy to say - one technology lead to the other. Integrated circuits brought PC, PC brought Windows, Windows brought Internet, Internet brought Broadband...As it happens with any new technology, each of these technologies would have had been received with skepticism before they were adopted and became successful. No one would have accepted when the PC and Windows were released that they would be a common household thing in the future. No one would have agreed that a common man wants broadband speed or later wireless connection. But that is how the progression works. The other observation is, while the technology innovation is additive, the semiconductor is shrinking (or subtractive) the design rule.
Now the big question is, how did these innovations become big enough to become a boom? The answer lies in how these got adopted. Windows, Internet and Broadband have a common pattern. They emerged because there was a need at first in the big companies, then its development lead to its adoption in the universities, where it developed even further, then it got adopted by small companies and eventually they achieved boom when the common man adopted the technology. However, the LCD, Netbooks and Smart Phones, they haven't reached the potential yet. They also skipped some of the adoption steps that the other three technologies followed. Perhaps these steps are essential part of the process so that product gets refined before it gets adopted by the next market. Besides, I wonder if there is a real need or application for LCD, Netbooks or the Smart Phones at the university or small companies? If they do not find applications in these two places, why would there be a need for these in the household? Probably this is one of the reasons why there is no boom in the 2000s after the broadband boom. In my opinion, LCD and netbooks have already reached their maturity in terms the number of applications where they are useful. So the only hope now lies on the Smart Phones.
If Smart Phones are to become the next boom, how is that going to be possible? First thing is that it should find applications for the common man. This in effect will give him reasons to buy. Unless the common man buys the Smart Phone it won't be boom but a fizz. Some ways to make a Smart Phone work for a common man is to build in more intelligence into it, such that it identifies a person by feel of touch, softness of grip, fingerprints, etc. The intelligence gives confidence to end user that even it is lost, it cannot be misused. Once this has been achieved, it could be used as a single solution for many operations such as - a key for opening the garage door, car door or office door, as an ID for managing bank accounts, and for all other facilities that a Smart Phone offers today. This is boom could provide some impetus to the economy and will sow the seeds for the next boom.
What could be the innovation beyond Smart Phone? There is a limitation to additive and subtractive innovations. Beyond a point they hit a wall, and cost of innovation become no longer sustainable. Addition of more feature to Smart Phone would make it highly complex. Additionally, the semiconductor manufacturers are finding technology barriers with the subtractive innovation. So definitely the next boom will not be along lines of Windows or Broadband innovation. There will be a focus shift, and perhaps it could be reversing the innovation approaches - substantive innovation for the technology to make the products simpler yet more powerful and additive innovation for the semiconductor manufacturing so that gate size reduction no longer holds the key to the processor performance.
